[SMM Daily Ferrochrome Review] Ferrochrome Supply Continues to Increase, Steel Bidding Expected to Be Bearish

On July 21, 2025, the ex-factory prices of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia were 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory prices were also 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content). The quoted prices for high-carbon ferrochrome from South Africa were 7,800-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), and those from Kazakhstan were 8,800-9,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), unchanged from the previous trading day on a MoM basis.

The ferrochrome market operated steadily during the day, with most waiting for steel mills to offer prices. According to customs data, China's total imports of high-carbon ferrochrome in June 2025 were 198,800 mt, up 28% MoM and down 39.8% YoY. Imports from South Africa were 73,600 mt, up 110.3% MoM and down 56.9% YoY; imports from Kazakhstan were 85,900 mt, down 12.7% MoM and down 28.1% YoY. The increase in total ferrochrome imports boosted the supply of ferrochrome, coupled with a significant increase in domestic ferrochrome production. It is expected that the subsequent supply of ferrochrome will move towards a surplus. On the demand side, the futures market for stainless steel pulled up during the day, and spot prices rose slightly. However, the end-use consumption demand has not fundamentally improved, remaining weak overall. Under the expectations of stainless steel production cuts, the purchasing demand for ferrochrome is limited, and there is a sentiment to drive down prices. The ferrochrome market holds a bearish expectation for the next round of steel mill tenders. On the cost side, chrome ore prices have not been adjusted, and a round of coke price increases has been implemented. The immediate smelting cost of ferrochrome has risen slightly, providing support for ferrochrome prices. In addition, ferrochrome is currently mainly delivered under long-term agreements, with fewer retail supplies available in the market. Producer sentiment to refuse to budge on prices remains strong, and ferrochrome prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.

In terms of raw materials, on July 21, 2025, the spot prices for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port were 54-55 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore prices were 49-51 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate prices were 56-57 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore prices were 60-61 yuan/mtu, unchanged from the previous trading day on a MoM basis. On the futures front, 40-42% South African fines held steady at $265-270/mt.

The chrome ore market continued its previous steady trend during the day, with quoted prices remaining unchanged. According to customs data, China's total imports of chrome ore in June 2025 were 1.6405 million mt, down 13.6% MoM and down 11.1% YoY; imports from South Africa were 1.3677 million mt, down 15.1% MoM and down 9.8% YoY; imports from Zimbabwe were 101,400 mt, down 26.2% MoM and up 10.4% YoY. Entering the steel mill tender offering period, the market is mostly in a wait-and-see mode, with ferrochrome producers slowing down their purchasing activities and waiting for the steel mill tenders to be finalized before making adjustments. Traders, considering the unclear outlook for chrome ore development in the future, mostly choose to purchase small quantities and build inventories during the price stability period. Currently, the supply of chrome ore in Zimbabwe remains tight. Inquiry enthusiasm for chrome ore has rebounded compared to other types of chrome ore, leading to an increase in actual trading volume. In the short term, the chrome ore market will experience limited fluctuations, and purchases of chrome ore will remain mediocre {{describing the trading situation}} before the steel tender prices are finalized next month.